DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIM VE BELİRSİZLİK ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE BELİRSİZLİK ENDEKSİ ÖRNEĞİ
Author :
Abstract
Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım (DYY) ülke görünümünü olumlu etkileyerek ülkeye güvenin artmasında ve dolayısıyla belirsizlik ortamının azalmasında rol oynayabileceği gibi belirsizlik de hem yatırımların oynaklığı hem de yatırımcıların “bekle-gör” davranışı dolayısıyla DYY üzerinde olumsuz rol oynayabilir. “Belirsizlik” konusu iktisadi analizde genel olarak yatırımları caydırıcı, tüketim harcamalarını erteleyici etkileriyle toplam talep üzerinden ekonomiyi doğrudan; riskleri artırarak ülke genel görünümünü bozup böylece beklentilerin olumsuza dönmesi ile sermaye girişlerinde azalma/sermaye kaçışı sonucu ile ekonomiyi dolaylı yoldan etkilediği söylenebilir. Bu çalışma, DYY ve Belirsizlik arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi Ahir vd. (1918) tarafından yeni geliştirilen Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi’nin Türkiye için olan verisinden (Türkiye Belirsizlik Endeksi-TBE) yararlanarak 1980-2020 dönemi için test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, belirsizlik konusunun bu şekilde Türkiye örneğinde ele alınması ve bunun için de yeni bir veri setinden yararlanılması çalışmanın literatüre özgün katkıları olarak değerlendirilebilir. DYY ve Belirsizlik arasındaki bu potansiyel nedensellik ilişkisini 1980-2020 dönemi için Türkiye örneğinde granger nedensellik testi ile analiz ettiğimiz çalışmamızda, bu ilişkiyi tek yönlü olacak şekilde DYY’den TBE’ye doğru tespit etmiş bulunmaktayız. TBE’den DYY’ye giden bir nedensellik tespit edilememesi dolayısıyla burada birbirini besleme bulunamamıştır.
Keywords
Abstract
While Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can play a role in increasing confidence in the country by positively affecting the country's outlook and thus reducing the environment of uncertainty, uncertainty can also play a negative role on FDI due to both the volatility of investments and the "wait-see" behavior of investors. It can be said that in the economic analysis, the subject of “uncertainty” directly affects the economy through total demand with its deterrent effects on investments and delaying consumption expenditures and it indirectly affects the economy by increasing risks and disrupting the general outlook of the country and thus turning the expectations to negative with a result of decrease in capital inflows/capital flight. This study aims to test the causal relationship between FDI and Uncertainty for the period of 1980-2020 by using the data for Turkey (Turkey Uncertainty Index-TUI) of the World Uncertainty Index recently developed by Ahir et al. (1918). In this context, handling the uncertainty issue in the example of Turkey in this way and using a new data set for this can be considered as the original contributions of the study to the literature. In our study where we analyzed this potential causality relationship between FDI and Uncertainty for the period of 1980-2020 in the sample of Turkey with the granger causality test, we determined a uni-directional relationship running from FDI to TUI. Since causality running from TUE to FDI could not be determined, mutual feeding could not be found here.
Keywords
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