THE EFFECT OF BASIC MACROECONOMİC VARİABLES ON BIST İNDEXES
TEMEL MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLERİN BIST ENDEKSLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Author : İsmail TUNA -- Serdar BUDAK - Sibel ÖLMEZ CANGİ
Number of pages : 199-214

Abstract

In this study, the effects of basic macroeconomic variables on share earnings has been determined by using the ISE indexes. Within this context, the period of January 2005-December 2016, the cointegration relations between ISE-30, ISE-50 and ISE-100 indexes and macroeconomic variables have been analyzed. For this purpose, three separate models in which ISE-30, ISE-50, ISE-100 indexes are dependent variables have been set up. First of all, by means of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests, it has been determined whether the variables are stable. With the aim of offering information about the short and long term parameters, the bound testing and lag defined in Pesaran, Shin and Smith’s (2001) studies have been examined by means of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). According to the results of the bound testing applied to each model, it has been concluded that ISE-30, ISE-50 and ISE-100 can have cointegration relations at 10%, 5% and 5% levels respectively. As for the results of ARDL test, it has been found that a cointegration relation exists between the three indexes and the exchange rate, the interest rate as well as the producer price index, which have been used the dependent variables.

Keywords

Macroeconomic Variables, ISE-30, ISE-50, ISE-100, ARDL

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