TESTING THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS: HOLIDAY EFFECT (BIST, VİOB)
ETKİN PİYASALAR HİPOTEZİNİN TEST EDİLMESİ: BAYRAM ETKİSİ (BIST VE VİOB)

Author : Merve DEMİRKOL -- Çiğdem ÖZARI
Number of pages : 721-737

Abstract

This study tests the presence of Holiday effect both on BIST and VIOB during the period between 2002 and 2015. We calculate the daily logarithmic returns of BIST30 and BIST100 to compare returns before and after holiday term and to investigate the effect we use regression analysis by the help of dummy variable concept. In addition, dollar exchange rate and two types of forward contracts (underlying asset BIST30 and exchange rate) have been used to investigate the Holiday effect. Our main purpose is to find out if the effect is same for exchange rate (BIST30) and forward contract which is written on exchange rate (BIST30) or to find out (or determine) what kind of effects can be. As a result of our analysis strong evidence indicating the influence of the holiday effect could not be obtained for forward contracts on BIST30 during the period 2005-2015. However holiday effect has been identified for other ındex we selected.

Keywords

Anomaly, BIST, VIOB, Efficient Market Hypothesis. Hol

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