THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE, IMPORT AND EXPORT: THE CASE OF TURKEY
DÖVİZ KURU, İTHALAT VE İHRACAT İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Author : Fatma Esra UĞURCA -- Müge SAĞLAM
Number of pages : 455-465

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to define the relationship between exchange rate, import and export variables with empirical findings. As in every statistical analysis, there are some assumptions to be taken into account in time series analysis. When stationary condition is not provided in time series analysis, applying statistical analysis on data causes misinterpretations. Tests for stationary condition were performed before the analysis was applied, so that the false regression problem was not encountered. The data on the study was obtained from the Central Bank of the Republic of TurkeyElectronic Data Distribution Site in 2010: M1-2017M5. Analyzes were made in the E-views package program. The Granger causality test was used to examine the short-term relationship between the variables, and the Johansen integration test was used to examine the long-term relationship. When the time series data of the variables have the same level of lag, they have provided the stationary condition. According to conclusions of the analysis, only the causality relation was determined only from the export variable to the import variable in the short term, and no relation between the other variables was found. However, in the long run it has been seen that all variables interact with each other.

Keywords

Exchange Rate, Import, Export, Granger Causality Test

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