THE EVALUATION OF FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY OF THE BUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFER (BOT) PROJECT UNDER UNCERTAINTY BY MEANS OF THE SIMULATION MODEL IS BASED ON JUDGMENTAL PROBABILITIES
BELİRSİZLİK ALTINDA YAP-İŞLET-DEVRET (YİD) PROJESİ FİNANSAL YAPILABİLİRLİĞİNİN YARGISAL OLASILIKLARA DAYALI SİMÜLASYON MODELİYLE DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Author : Elif ACAR -- Hasan DURUCASU
Number of pages : 579-598

Abstract

The BOT Projects are characterized with high capital expenditure and long working duration. For this reason, it is inevitable that there is uncertainty about the future, and the estimation of the cash flow of the BOT project becomes therefore difficult. In the study, firstly the Investment Evaluation Methods have been examined in detail to determine the cash flows of the BOT project and the Net Present Value Method has been selected. Then, the Fuzzy Set Theory and probabilistic approach which are different risk models under uncertainty have been discussed in order to determine the risk level on the cash flows. As a general model, the Monte Carlo Simulation has been chosen, and a fuzzy approach has been proposed for the situation in which the probabilities has been formed subjectively. A model on a real-world event has been established by adjusting deterministic parameters that are important in making the BOT investment decision. The investment costs, the discount rate, the debt interes

Keywords

Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT), Investment Project Evaluation, Uncertainty, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Fu

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